🌻風險管理
跌了幾十趴的個股還要繼續抱下去嗎? 去年飆漲的SPAC, 今年還漲的回來嗎?(可以跟下篇一起看).
開始玩成長股後, 我學到最難的一堂課是風險控制. 每個人對風險控制的觀念不一樣, 這跟每個人的心理素質也有關係.
風險管理, 也就是"留得青山在, 不怕沒柴燒".
風險管理:
https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86
🌻There Are Too Many Defenseless(無防禦性的) Stocks
(可以的話, 我希望您可以好好讀一下這篇文章. 我希望能夠幫您守住些財富, 減少些損失, 甚至創造些獲利. "Too many", 也就代表了股票沒有稀有性)
The underwriters just created too many stocks. There's too many new companies, too many companies that help you with analytics(分析), too many that offer video, too many data collectors and too many real-time analysis, and too many cybersecurity companies. There's been too many new electric vehicle derivatives, too many cannabis (大麻) plays and way too many new fintechs(金融科技).
The effect? We are now facing a bewildering number of companies that simply do the same things and can't be differentiated (無差異性的) and, frankly, are too hard to understand unless you are deeply involved in the transfer of data from on your premises to the cloud(雲端).
Why does this matter?
Because these stocks are defenseless. They are defenseless against inflation (通膨) because so many of them sell at a multiple to sales and any company that trades as a multiple to sales (指的是以P/S為估值方式, 非傳統的P/E. 軟體公司主要是用P/S) will see its value erode more quickly than any other in this stock market because the company has to graduate from a multiple to sales to a multiple of earnings, or just keep losing money. So many new investors have not experienced real inflation where these kinds of stocks can't be given away.
They are defenseless against an economic boom. I have been reading through countless software as a whatever with a go to market strategy and a huge TAM (total addressable market, 指的是市場大小) to land and expand(指的是雲端公司的商業模式), and my eyes glaze over. Who needs a company with all of those buzzwords that's growing at 27% and losing money when I have plenty of high quality industrials that are growing at 27% and spewing cash to the point the biggest issue is how much should be put to growth versus rewarding shareholders.
They are defenseless against older companies with a balanced policy toward dividends and buybacks, so that supply is mopped up while demand is bolstered by a yield. The land and expanders don't have anything backing them up which makes them vulnerable to sudden shocks down as we have seen.
They are defenseless against insider selling. If capital gains rates are going up, these are the companies with the most vulnerable stocks because so many of the people in these new companies have stocks that are still up substantially from when they got stock so a company with a stock down 30%-40% is vulnerable from scads of insider selling, including secondaries I am now expecting with increasing frequency.
They are defenseless against SPACs. While there are many good SPACs there are too many SPACs with too much stock sloshing around. I keep thinking about that MP Materials (MP) secondary offering in late March, where entities controlled by CEO James Litinsky sold 4.6 million shares of his company in a deal priced at $35. Now it is a small percentage of his holdings and many others involved with the company sold small amounts, too. That's not the point. It's more of a statement: this stock traded at $50. You might have been inclined to buy on the pullback but you would have been massacred as the stock is now at $27. If you have a so-called successful SPAC its success might be measured by how much money you took out of it before its stock fell by 50%. There are hundreds of things and when you consider all of the warrants out there, you know this market is going to be overwhelmed with this stuff.
You aren't going to see these kinds of secondaries at Deere (DE) or Caterpillar (CAT) , that's for certain.
Now there are people out there willing to buy the incredibly almost stupidly risky stocks, people like Cathie Wood, who demonstrated her unflappable conviction to her method of buying stocks that worked when there's scarcity value but there's anything but that now.
Maybe she can take down tens of billions of dollars worth and save the day. I wouldn't count on it. I am sorry to question her stock picking, lord knows she's been amazing. But unless others copy her, we know the stocks she is buying resemble what's not working at all. Maybe someday, but not now.
I try to figure out what the end game for these stocks might be if the economy keeps heating up and inflation accelerates. There's simply not enough money from young people or ETFs based on high growth or Cathie Wood to keep these stocks higher, and there's too much opportunity for the insiders to do what MP did, something that crunched the stock even as it reported a quarter ahead of expectations, which meant something at one point but means absolutely nothing now. Nothing at all.
文章來源: https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer-there-are-too-many-defenseless-stocks-15649142
Picture來源:
https://society6.com/product/boxing-cat_print
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Ancient Greek knew that the Earth is round. Ancient Greek Astronomer Eratosthenes obtained an estimation of the circumference of the Earth accurate to a few percent of the modern value measured by satellites.
Columbus was simply stubborn and wrong to ignore hard scientific facts and was lucky enough to be saved by the continent of the New World.
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【Lesson #2 - Don't fall in love with your product】
Anyone who’s read Eric Ries’ “The Lean Startup” (and even those that didn’t) is all too familiar with the concept of a minimum viable product (MVP)—except when they’re not. Oftentimes through a perfectionist attitude or perhaps inherent fear of failure, founders create products that are more viable than minimum. That was the experience for Kevin Wong, the Co-founder/CEO of Origami Labs (AW#15), when they were creating their first product, a smart ring called ORII. According to Kevin, it was because he had such an attachment to this vision in his head, and anything short of that vision just felt like a concession. He’s since learned to accept a more iterative approach to product development and applying that lesson to his current product OFLO which enables smartphone-level comms in an audio wearable designed specifically for frontline staff.
—-
After establishing Origami Labs in 2015, we spent several years in R&D to create our first product ORII, a voice assistant smart ring that uses bone conduction technology to allow users to check new messages on their phone, control music, and complete other everyday tasks by simply holding your finger to your ear. This simple, intuitive finger-to-ear motion was what we loved so much about the product and what made it so easy to catch on and talk about. Our kickstarter campaign blew way past the initial goal in a matter of weeks. We became the first HK startup to place in TechCrunch Battlefield’s top 5. Press coverage was coming at us left and right and orders were coming from over 50 different countries. A lot of that, however, turned out to be false momentum.
In retrospect, ORII probably should have never been able to sell as well as it did. A lot of founders through sheer passion, grit, and willpower alone can build up early traction without breaking a sweat. But can someone 2 to 3 degrees away from them sell their product? That’s where founders really get measured in success. At some point, the product should be able to stand on its own two feet and speak for itself.
ORII could not. That elegant finger-to-ear motion that we were so enamored with ultimately became its achilles heel. It turns out, in 95 percent of the scenarios, you wouldn’t want to lift your hand to your head, especially in this wireless/hands-free age. We effectively fell in love with our product and stopped really listening to our customers. We thought it was perfect and became blind to any signals that said otherwise. I still remember going to visit Eric Migicovsky, YC partner and founder of Pebble watch, at his house. I showed him some of our early prototypes and he basically said “that’s cool, but it won’t work,” drawing upon his own experiences with hardware. Sure enough, after the initial media frenzy died down, orders started to visibly slow down. The final nail in the coffin was when Amazon released the echo loop (smart ring tied to Alexa), which mimicked our product feature-for-feature but better in every way.
As a founder, what you want to build makes so much sense. You see it with so much clarity that it’s almost unfathomable why someone wouldn’t understand. But innovation has to be an iterative process, as the market can only accept so much change. You need to put out a product that’s in some way necessary for people today, that gets some people using it on a frequent basis, and only from there can you practically grow it into something that you envisioned.
Applications for AW#22 are now open to founders targeting SEA, AI/IoT, or Blockchain/Defi -> https://bit.ly/36v9k8D
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